GREETINGS everyone. Well, I’m back on the island after a marvelous two weeks on the mainland. I attended a planetarium conference and had some time with my family on the mainland and now it’s back to work!

Since the Olympics are going on, I thought you might be interested in a study done by two South Korean researchers. They analyzed data from sports events over the last 100 years in an attempt to answer the following questions.

Running and swimming records are broken again and again at almost every international athletics event. But, can human performance continue to improve indefinitely? Will runners continue to accelerate off the starting blocks and reach the finish line in faster and faster times? Will swimmers always be able to dive into the record books with a quicker kick?

Yu Sang Chang and Seung Jin Baek of the KDI School of Public Policy and Management in Seoul used non-linear regression models to accurately extrapolate the data from 61 running and swimming events and they calculated we could reach the upper limits on elite human performance within a decade.

Their research has led them to conclude that the limit on the fastest times for many events will be reached somewhere in the next seven to 10 years. Although records are still being broken at the 2012 Olympics in London and may be broken at the Rio Olympics in 2016, after that ... who knows? The researchers believe their discovery of a “time to limit” has a number of policy implications for both local and national sport associations as well as for the international rule-setting federations.

Of course, U.S. swimmer Michael Phelps has famously proclaimed: “You can't put a limit on anything. The more you dream, the farther you get.” Phelps has set more than 40 world records. Sprinter Usain Bolt of Jamaica similarly shaved split seconds from his 100-meter time over the years. Bolt's 9.58 second 100m time shattered the previous theoretical running speed limit of 9.60 seconds that was suggested 40 years ago. But Bolt’s time for the 100m in the London Olympics was 9.63, just a little slower than his record time.

“The limit of speed in sport events has been a popular topic for the public because watching athletes setting new records to win is exciting and stimulating for many sport fans,” Chang and Baek suggest. “In addition, setting new world records may even be inspiring to the public because the process of improving and winning the competition reminds them of what they can accomplish in their own life.”

Other researchers have criticized the use of linear regression to extrapolate to a limit. However, the present work uses the officially recognized world records on 61 sporting events during the period from 1900 to 2009 (29 running and 32 swimming events all at the Olympic level). Therefore this study may be the most comprehensive study undertaken so far.

The statistical analysis suggests improvements in running and swimming are slowing down and will eventually reach a maximum in the decade time period they suggest. However, their analysis doesn’t take into account changes in the rules, measurements and environmental conditions. If the governing federations move the starting blocks as it were, Phelps' prediction that there are no limits may come true and athletes will continue to make a splash in the record books indefinitely.

And the current Olympics may prove them right. As I write this, eight world records have been broken in the London Olympics, a far cry from the 43 world records broken in the Beijing Olympics in 2008.