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Back Opinion Beware the bond ratings

Beware the bond ratings

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HERE we go again, celebrating the fact that the country’s major credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor's and Fitch, are giving Guam its highest credit ratings ever. We will get an “A” with a stable outlook from S&P today, and yesterday Fitch rated our series A and B bonds at “A-" also with a stable outlook.

The point of this news is, of course, that we’ll have no trouble selling our next issue of tax-exempt municipal bonds. We’re just weeks away from floating another $100 million.

If you favor entering into long-term debt to pay refunds to taxpayers and fund other operational needs such as school repairs, you may think this is a great week for Guamanians. That’s certainly the spin from the politicians.

But if, amidst all the high-fiving and back-slapping, you feel the need to insert a word of caution, you’re not alone. We’re one step closer to going into another $100 million of debt, just one day after the Fiscal Responsibility and Tax Refund Commission heard we’ve busted through the $1 billion mark in total GovGuam indebtedness. Busted through, in fact, with aplomb. That’s not good news for our government; its very bad news.

We are putting the theory, that a government can borrow itself back into the black, to the test. Can we become prosperous by piling on still more debt? Time will tell, but logic suggests we cannot.

And what about that 10 percent borrowing ceiling, mandated by the Organic Act? Has the total value of private, taxable property on Guam grown past $10 billion far enough to allow for another $100 million in bonds, if we’re already more than $1 billion in debt? How do we know?

Ah, but why put a damper on all the enthusiasm? “We fought really hard for the tax refunds, and we couldn’t be happier about this news,” Gov. Eddie Calvo said in a news release. “The highest credit ratings in our history were just affirmed, even though the global community is in financial upheaval. That says we’re doing things right on Guam.” He also acknowledged we have a long way to go to fix decades of instability and lost opportunity.

“With the governor and Legislature working together,” Senate Minority Leader Frank Blas Jr. said, “we will implement the hard reforms that will restore the public’s trust and build this island to its greatest heights.”

“The current administration is taking steps to achieve structural balance,” Fitch said in their report, “including a hiring freeze, reductions in the use of electricity and vehicles, and a rescinding of across-the-board pay increases.” They’ll be watching us, as will the investors who buy our bonds. Those folks will need to be paid first.

Comments  

 
+1 #3 Dave 2012-05-26 13:00
Look for more borrowing initiatives next year. One of the old bonds gets paid off, and our big borrowers and spenders will claim new headroom under the debt ceiling. Again, or course, the public will be barred from the decision which is legally theirs.
 
 
+5 #2 therapist 2012-05-10 15:02
Shhhhhh! Variety, don't tell them that we don't have a plan to repay these bonds. I need my refund.
 
 
+7 #1 Mathew 2012-05-10 05:26
When S&P, a unit of McGraw Hill Inc., downgraded the U.S. perfect credit rating in the aftermath of the debt limit debate, one market analyst in this newspaper in the business section remarked that the credit ratings agencies know as much about the financial picture of the federal government as the guy in the street reading the newspaper. I suspect, as some folks also have, the same can be said about how much the credit ratings agencies know about the accurate picture of Gov Guam's financial health.
 

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