TWO years ago, the then-newly elected mayor of Tinian, in a meeting with then-JGPO head David Bice, joked that the Marines should just be relocated to Tinian in light of the opposition on Guam.

Bice reportedly smiled back and said tongue-in-cheek that they’ll consider the proposal seriously.

Well, it’s no joking matter now.

A lot of things have happened since that time and if various media reports are to be believed, the new realignment agreement between the U.S. and Japan will spell out a more prominent role for Tinian.

Of course, Tinian has always been mentioned as a training site in previous buildup plans. But the current proposals are calling for a much bigger role for Tinian, probably at the expense of Guam.

The number of Marines relocating to Guam has already been cut by half. And of that number, as high as 60 percent may be on a “rotational basis,” meaning they will not be permanently based on Guam.

This may be the reason why some $3.29 billion in loans slated to help finance construction for housing on Guam was canceled this week. With less families relocating to Guam and more “grunts” coming in, permanent housing for the relocating Marines may no longer be necessary.

Instead, some of that money will be going to Tinian to construct more training facilities and probably even some rudimentary housing facilities that would be more appropriate for the Marine combat troops who will be training there.

This, of course, is music to Tinian’s leaders, because the island’s bet on casino gaming has not really borne out economic benefits.

Worse, the private development of land in Tinian has suffered because the military has not fulfilled its promise of fully maximizing the land it has leased.

The U.S. military has been sitting on thousands of acres of land it has leased from Tinian landowners, all the while prohibiting the landowners from seeking alternative private uses for the land.

The Tinian landowners were told that their sacrifice of the 18,000 acres would lead to economic development, but that has not happened. As a result, Tinian’s economic potential has been severely hampered by the residents’ inability to use the land reserved for a military base.

Tinian landowners now want the U.S. military to fulfill its promise of using Tinian as a military base. Otherwise, Tinian landowners say they must be freed from their military leases and allowed to use their properties in other ways.

Under the original draft environmental impact statement for the Guam buildup, Tinian was only given a relatively minor role as a site for training exercises for the Marines. This was not expected to amount to much economic benefit for Tinian’s economy.

Tinian’s leaders realize this and say it’s either all or nothing. “The only solution is to bring Futenma to Tinian,” an official of the Tinian Chamber of Commerce declared.

Tinian’s leaders make a great case for the military to relocate the Marines to Tinian instead of Guam. As the Tinian leaders are fond of saying, the military already has “prepaid” tracts of land amounting to approximately 18,000 acres because of the existing military land use agreement between the U.S. and CNMI. Clearly, there is no need for land condemnations in Tinian as people on Guam fear.

Perhaps more importantly, Tinian has a very small civilian population who overwhelmingly support the establishment of a U.S. base on Tinian, in contrast to Guam where a number of residents are having second thoughts about hosting additional military personnel.

Under the parameters of the original realignment plans, Tinian had a lot of disadvantages compared to Guam.

For one, Tinian’s existing infrastructure, especially many of its roads and runways, are of World War II vintage.

In addition, Guam already has the “social infrastructure” or “quality of life infrastructure” that military families hold so dear. In Guam, military personnel and their families have a small piece of America, with all the amenities they have grown used to.

But with the assumptions of the realignment plans now so radically altered, Tinian actually looks better to Pentagon planners than Guam.

With the U.S. decision to keep the Marine Corps command in Okinawa and just rotate mostly combat units to Guam, there will no longer be a need for the extensive housing and utility infrastructure upgrades that were previously thought to be needed.

This saves both the U.S. and Japan money that would have otherwise been expended in expensive housing and infrastructure projects.

The Marines’ top brass would also be very happy with Tinian’s rough living conditions. There’s no chance of Marines getting soft there, with the few, if any, comforts and distractions to be found in that island. And that is the way the Marines may want it, for they would want to approximate as much as possible the hardships and rigors of wartime conditions.

Finally, there would be more opportunities to cross-train with Japan’s Self-Defense Forces. Because of area constraints, U.S. and Japan land forces have had very few opportunities to train together.

With tensions continuing to rise in the region, such joint training exercises have become indispensable. And Tinian can offer Japan and the U.S. an ideal training site because of its vast unpopulated training areas – something Guam doesn’t have.